: Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Study Program           : Mathematics Education
Course & Code           : Probability Theory, MAA 318
Credit Hours               : Theory 2 credit, Practice 1 credit
Semester                     : V
Prerequisites & Code : Elementary Statistics, MAA 306
Lecturer                      : Kismiantini, M.Si.

I.    COURSE DESCRIPTION
The course is more focused on probability concepts than statistical mathematics. The materials of  probability  theory  are  combinatorial  methods,  probability,  random  variables  and  their distributions,  joint  distributions,  properties  of  random  variables,  and  functions  of  random variables.

II.   BASED COMPETENCY
The students able to use probability and probability distribution for solving a real problem and mathematics problem which is need the calculation of probability, prove the theorems which related to probability, and find a relationship between distributions, and determine expected value of random variables.

III. ACTIVITIES PLAN
 Meeting Based Competency Subject Matter Activities References 1-3 To understand the counting and combinatorial methods Combinatorial Methods: the basic principle of counting, permutation, combination Discussion & Exercises A: 31-39 B: 1-16 C: 1-113 4-6 To understand the axiomatic approach to probability, some properties of probability, conditional probability and Bayes theorem Probability: definition of probability, some properties of probability, conditional probability, Bayes theorem Discussion & Exercises A: 1-30 B: 22-102 C: 1-113 7-10 To understand random variables and their properties, expectation, variance and moment generating functions Random Variables and Their Distributions: discrete random variables and continuous random variables Discussion & Exercises A: 53-83 B: 117-134 11 Test I 12-16 To recognize and learn the special probability distributions and their properties distributions Special Probability Distributions: special discrete distributions and special continuous distributions Discussion & Exercises A: 91-124 B: 134-224

 17-21 To solve a probability problem with reference to joint distributions Joint Distributions: joint discrete distributions, joint continuous distributions, independent random variables, and conditional distributions Discussion & Exercises A: 137-160 B: 232-286 22 Test II 23-26 To explain some properties of random variables such as expected values, covariance, correlation, conditional expectation, and joint moment generating functions Properties of Random Variables: properties of expected values, covariance, correlation, conditional expectation, joint moment generating functions Discussion & Exercises A: 171-188 B: 297-373 27-32 To gain the ability to use some properties of random variables and their distribution in functions of random variables Functions of Random Variables: the cumulative density function technique, transformation methods, joint transformations, sums of random variables, moment generating function method Discussion & Exercises A: 193-214

IV. REFERENCES Compulsory textbooks  :
A.  Bain, Lee J. & Engelhardt, Max. 1992.  Introduction to Probability and Mathematical
Statistics. Belmont: Duxbury Press.
B.  Ross, Sheldon M. 2010. A First Course in Probability. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.

Suggested reference books         :
C.  Rice, John A., 1995. Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis. Belmont: Duxbury Press.
D.  Bluman, A.G. 2005. Probability Demystified. New York: McGraw-Hill.

V.   EVALUATION
 No. Components Weight (%) 1. Participations 10 2. Assigment 10 3. Quiz 15 4. Mid Test 25 6. Final Test 40 Total 100

Yogyakarta, September 2012
Verified by                                                                                         Lecturer

Dr. Hartono                                                                                         Rosita Kusumawati, M.Sc.
NIP. 19620329 198702 1 002                                                             NIP. 19800707 200501 2 001