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lihat post sebelumnya pada human resource planning

  • Process of projecting the organization’s future HR needs (demand) and how it will meet those needs (supply) under a given set of assumptions about the organization’s policies and the environmental conditions in which it operates.
  • Without forecasting cannot assess the disparity between supply and demand  nor how effective an HR program is in reducing the disparity.

Forecasting as a Part of HRP
Forecasting as a Part of HRP

Internal Supply Forecasting Information

  • Organizational features (e.g., staffing capabilities)
  • Productivity - rates of productivity, productivity changes
  • Rates of promotion, demotion, transfer and turnover

External Supply Forecasting Information

  • External labor market factors (retirements, mobility, education, unemployment)
  • Controllable company factors on external factors (entry-level openings, recruiting, compensation)

Demand Forecasting Information

  • Organizational and unit strategic plans
  • Size of organization
  • Staff and Managerial Support
  • Organizational design

Considerations in Establishing a Forecasting System

  • How sophisticated
  • Appropriate time frame
  • Subjective versus objective forecasting methods

System Sophistication

  • Organizational sizelarge organizations require more complex forecasting systems and likely to have the required skilled staff
  • Organizational complexity complex career paths and diverse skill requirements lead to more complex forecasting systems
  • Organizational objectivesthe greater the gap between current HR situation and desired HR situation the more sophisticated the system
  • Organizational plans and strategiesthe complex the plans are the more complex the forecasting system

Forecasting Time Frame

Depends on degree of environmental uncertainty
  • Factors creating uncertainty (shortening time frame)
  • many new competitors, changes in technology, changes in social, political and economic climate, unstable product demand
  • Factors promoting stability (longer time frame)
  • strong competitive position, slowly developing technology, stable product demand. 

Subjective VS.  Objective Forecasting

Objective is inappropriate when:
  • Lack expertise to use objective methods
  • Lack the historical data or HR data base is  inadequate
  • Forecasting horizon is too long for the available objective method
Demand Forecasting Methods
  • Delphi Method
  • Staffing Table Approach
  • Regression Analysis
  • Time Series Analysis
  • Linear Programming
  • Skills Inventory
  • Replacement Charts
  • Succession Planning
  • Flow Modeling/Markov Analysis
  • Computer Simulations

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